The findings
What the data actually shows
Real patterns pulled from every 4th down decision since 2010, not just a lookup tool.
Applies to superlatives and the by-coach leaderboard below. Situational, conversion, and league-wide numbers always include every coach in the historical record.
Superlatives
Minimum 100 career decisions to qualify.
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How often, and how well
How often the league actually goes for it, paired with how often it works when they do. Go-for-it rate is the real historical rate; conversion odds are the model's estimate for one typical situation with only distance varying, not a raw rate for that exact combination.
Does it actually help?
Average shift in win probability when a team goes for it, split by whether they were trailing, tied, or leading at the time. Win probability added comes straight from nflverse's own play-level model, not an estimate made for this site. Positive means the decision helped on average; negative means it hurt. A leading team doesn't need to score again to win the exchange: keeping the ball and running clock counts too, so both numbers are shown below.
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League trend
League-wide go-for-it rate by season.
By coach, by situation
The five most aggressive coaches within each distance bucket, minimum sample size applied.
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